Sunday April 17, 2011
Victory not all that sweet
Analysis
By Joceline Tan
Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud was returned to power in the 10th Sarawak election but it was a bittersweet win because it came with unprecedented losses in the Iban and Chinese seats.
IT was not quite the perfect storm that some people had predicted but the Sarawak election is a signal that the political landscape in the state has shifted in a way that its leaders had not foreseen.
Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud was returned to power with a two-thirds majority but his victory was punctured by unprecedented losses.
A total of 16 seats fell in the rural heartland where Barisan Nasional used to hold sway while Deputy Chief Minister and SUPP president Tan Sri Dr George Chan's 30-year political career came to a crunching halt.
Dr Chan's stunning defeat by a young DAP lawyer topped the trail of losses of other SUPP candidates, leaving the party with a big question mark over its future.
Taib's party PBB remained on top of the game, retaining all the 35 seats it contested.
But even before the night was out, it was evident that Sarawak's politics would never be the same again.
Taib's coalition crossed the two-thirds margin shortly after 6.30pm, by which time five seats were confirmed to have fallen to DAP and PKR.
Before that, tweets from opposition politicians claimed they were on the way to smashing the Barisan's two-thirds majority.
A Perak leader tweeted that he had received a call to ask Pakatan Rakyat to get ready to form the Sarawak Government.
But it was one of those “Sept 16” claims.
However, there has been a Chinese tsunami of sorts in the urban centres where DAP took 12 of 15 seats contested.
The DAP was the big winner in Sarawak and scored astonishing victory margins in several seats.
DAP also made a clean sweep of all the seats it contested in the capital.
The Chinese in Kuching have made themselves heard loud and clear.
In fact, Dr Chan's defeat was a metaphor of the Chinese rejection of SUPP which they see as too much of a yes-man to Taib.
But the earth-shattering reality for Taib and his government was the erosion of support in the rural Iban seats.
Barisan not only lost Iban-majority seats but saw its victory margins in other Iban seats slide to an all-time low.
Politics in the rural hinterland is no longer what it used to be.
The Iban support can no longer be taken for granted.
Ba'Kelalan fell to Baru Bian, the indigenous lawyer who has been such a thorn in the side of Taib's administration.
PKR's win in Ba'Kelalan was expected but the party's win in Krian, another Iban seat, was a big blow because the defeated incumbent Datuk Peter Nyarok Entrie is the deputy president of SPDP, a Barisan component party.
DAP's ceramah in Kuching, Miri and the central basin of Sibu, Sarikei and Lanang had drawn massive crowds night after night.
Their Ubah mascot, a cute soft toy in the form of the Sarawak hornbill, was sold out and every night, there were more and more people wearing the signature red T-shirts at their ceramah.
Their grand finale in Kuching was the biggest rally that local folk had ever seen and the opinion that night was the Chinese tsunami would reach the shore the next day.
It was not the da xuan or big change that the party was hoping for but it has been DAP's most successful outing in Sarawak.
SUPP, the party that has represented Chinese interest all these years, will have to do a lot of soul-searching on how to recover and remain relevant.
Voter turnout has been quite low in the last few elections.
It was no different this time around despite the most intense electioneering in Sarawak history.
Some saw the low turnout as a form of silent protest.
The perception was while many voters did not want to vote for Barisan, they were also not keen on voting for the opposition DAP or PKR and definitely not for PAS which lost all the seats it contested.
This election has been all about Taib or Pa Mao the name by which he is known to all and sundry.
His 30 years in power, unfortunately, coincided with the ouster of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak.
His overstaying became such an awkward issue for his coalition government that he could not even celebrate his three decades in power.
The results suggest that the power transition will definitely take place.
Taib may even have to bring forward his transition plan to perhaps next year when PBB, of which he is president, is scheduled to hold its party election.
Taib has seen how he was openly criticised and ridiculed throughout the campaign, something which had never happened in any state election.
There is no denying the groundswell and it is not only against him but also those around him who have overstayed their welcome.
The Iban change of heart is also a slap in the face for PBB deputy president Tan Sri Alfred Jabu who represents the indigenous Pesaka wing of the party.
Jabu, who won narrowly, is the only top leader of Taib's generation who has yet to indicate whether he is making way after the polls. Regardless, he will be under great pressure to go after this.
In overstaying, Taib had given the basis for others to cling on. Those who have overstayed are what is known as the Ming Court generation, the group which came to power with Taib in the 1980s.
The signs of what would happen last night were already in the 2006 election and the Sibu by-election but those in power chose not see it.
The outcome in Sarawak is not exactly a disaster for Barisan but it spells trouble in time to come.
The political transition after this becomes more crucial than ever to Barisan's hold on Sarawak.
How Taib handles the transition which will impact the coalition's ambitions in the general election.
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